Hi Lionel - do you have any thoughts on DoT requirement? their approval could be a wild card - that's a big overhang / risk that a lot of arbs haven't been able to handicap
Hi Lionel, thanks-appreciate the thoughtful writeup! Regarding your statement "He’s earned a reputation as an even-handed arbiter over his nearly 4 decades on the bench", do you have any experience with Judge Young or have you read/skimmed his cases involving corporations?...Judge Young seems to always rule in favor of corporations.
I think the market is concerned about the "survival" of either companies at this point. If the deal doesn't go through, Spirit is currently in bad shape and from an investing standpoint, I feel like the downside is greater than anticipated before the latest quarter. JetBlue has also deteriorated since the deal was made and I think the market is seeing considerable risks in JBLU not being able to "afford" the deal (which is very rich compared to what Spirit actually is today). This also challenges the potential upside thinking : could we see an attempt from JBLU to pull a (AMZN-IRBT) where the acquisition price gets redone? Is there a "legal" chance of this happening? Could JBLU legally forfeit the deal based on its current "health", arguing that the deal would kill JBLU as a company if things continue to deteriorate? I don't have any opinion on any of these but I feel like this is what the market is pricing in.
Hi Lionel, any thoughts here on the eve of the trial? I’m wondering if the poor results and projected results for SAVE have changed your thought on the arb in either direction?
Hi Lionel - do you have any thoughts on DoT requirement? their approval could be a wild card - that's a big overhang / risk that a lot of arbs haven't been able to handicap
Hi Lionel, thanks-appreciate the thoughtful writeup! Regarding your statement "He’s earned a reputation as an even-handed arbiter over his nearly 4 decades on the bench", do you have any experience with Judge Young or have you read/skimmed his cases involving corporations?...Judge Young seems to always rule in favor of corporations.
Thanks for the great write-up.
I think the market is concerned about the "survival" of either companies at this point. If the deal doesn't go through, Spirit is currently in bad shape and from an investing standpoint, I feel like the downside is greater than anticipated before the latest quarter. JetBlue has also deteriorated since the deal was made and I think the market is seeing considerable risks in JBLU not being able to "afford" the deal (which is very rich compared to what Spirit actually is today). This also challenges the potential upside thinking : could we see an attempt from JBLU to pull a (AMZN-IRBT) where the acquisition price gets redone? Is there a "legal" chance of this happening? Could JBLU legally forfeit the deal based on its current "health", arguing that the deal would kill JBLU as a company if things continue to deteriorate? I don't have any opinion on any of these but I feel like this is what the market is pricing in.
Is a potential update something you are considering for the future
How many overlaps are left now with JBLU divesting the holdings? Are there any significant increase of market share left?
Looking ugly now
Hi Lionel, any thoughts here on the eve of the trial? I’m wondering if the poor results and projected results for SAVE have changed your thought on the arb in either direction?
Thank you for a great read!